ESRI – Ireland on course for its largest recession in history

 

Ireland is on course for its largest recession in history, according to new research.

The Economic and Social Research Institute has released its quarterly forecasts for the coming year.

For this research, the ESRI outlined three possible scenarios.

It's baseline scenario would be if the government's roadmap is implemented as planned, which it states is most likely.

Either side of that, a more benign scenario would be if recovery starts in the final part of the year, with a severe case if a second lockdown is needed.

It forecasts GDP to fall anywhere between 8.6 to 17.1, per cent depending on the scenario.

Consumer spending is also expected to take a hit at around 13 percent due to Covid-19.

Researchers predict that if a second lockdown was to come into effect, it would mean economic growth could be pushed back by 6 to 12 months.